NEAR on the Evidence

NEAR on the Evidence

A long-term thesis for NEAR written as tests, not slogans. Each claim has evidence pulled from public sources, a pre-registered threshold that would prove it wrong, and a verdict the pipeline recomputes on every run.

Verdict in five lines

    Scorecard

    Thresholds were fixed in config/claims.json before future data arrives. SUPPORTED = every support test holds; FALSIFIED = any kill test holds; MIXED = some support tests hold.

    Scenario model: can value accrual catch up with issuance?

    New NEAR is issued to stakers every epoch. Gas fees are burned and, since Feb 2026, NEAR Intents revenue buys NEAR back. Coverage = (NEAR burned + NEAR bought back) / NEAR issued. Move the sliders; the same model runs from the CLI (python3 -m nearthesis scenario). Starting values are measured from the snapshot.

    Coverage of issuance by burn + buyback, per year (100% = holders no longer diluted in value terms).

    Sensitivity: year-5 coverage

    Rows: Intents volume growth per year. Columns: NEAR price as a multiple of today (a higher price means each dollar of revenue buys fewer NEAR). Green = at or above 100%.

    Sources in this snapshot

    Every file in data/snapshot-*/ stores the URL and fetch time next to the raw payload. No API keys, no payments.